I almost never start a blog post, story, column (or speech) with a quote. I got pummeled for doing so back in the 1970s by an editor at the Windsor Star, and I've never forgot.

But to me, this one bears our attention:

"The world cannot afford a failure as big as China."

That's a warning from Chinese agricultural journalist Zhou Siyu, in his fine 2012 outlook story about his country's projected agricultural fortunes, published in the China Daily.

Zhou, who visited Guelph in September as a participant in the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists congress, says China's farmers are fighting a battle on two fronts.

"They are simultaneously contending with a surge in demand stemming from the ever-increasing population, and with a decrease in the amount of arable land, water and other natural resources that can be exploited, " he says.

According to Zhou, the country's looming troubles help explain why it has imported more agricultural goods in recent years. Not until 1996 did the country begin to import soybeans. By 2010, though, China was bringing in 54.8 million tons of soybeans a year, making it the largest importer of that farm product in the world.

Here's the Canadian angle: in 2011, China surpassed Canada to become the largest importer of US agricultural goods. It's a very hungry country.  And, says Zhou, it's spending a lot of money on food, with its imports helping keep economies such as the US afloat.

That's why the world can't afford China to fail, says Zhou. Globally, who else is spending money?

The photo in this blog post is from China Daily, of harvesting at a farm in Nantong, Jiangsu province.

We waste a lot of food.

Take the fact that while hundreds of thousands of people go to bed hungry, North American society has become quite comfortable throwing out food. Guelph’s George Morris Centre estimates we throw away 40 per cent of our food every year, worth about $27 billion.

Conflict also exists in the fact we are one of the world’s most affluent societies, yet in Ontario, 400,000 people use food banks. The Ontario Association of Food Banks delivers more than eight million pounds of food to food banks and their hunger relief programs across the province, including breakfast clubs, school meal programs, soup and community kitchens, emergency shelters, seniors’ centres and youth groups across Ontario. It’s become a huge social network.

And there’s conflict in the fact that even though we’re better educated than ever, we’re putting untold pressure on our health-care system by making poor food choices. Nova Scotia has predicted that without change, in 10 to 15 years health care will consume 100 per cent of its provincial program spending budget. Other provinces feel similar pressure.

None of this conflict is the agriculture sector’s fault. But interestingly, people still look to it for answers. They’ve embraced Hippocrates’ advice: let food be thy medicine.

And perhaps that would be more likely if people gravitated towards healthier food choices in the same way they’ve embraced local food. A new Bank of Montreal consumer poll showed 94 per cent of Canadians believe it is important to support local farmers and buy local on a regular basis. Respondents said when they go for local food, 70 per cent or more choose poultry and vegetables first, followed by beef, fruit and cheese.

To me, those sound like pretty healthy choices.

Of course, the way food is prepared has a lot to do with its impact on health. But at least the raw commodities have the potential to get people off to a good start.

More hopeful signs are on the horizon. John Kelly, vice-president of the Erie Innovation and Commercializationin farmland-rich Norfolk County, says southern Ontario’s large population is expanding its preferences for local food. Some companies in food service and

retail are focusing on local food as a merchandising strategy. He believes demand is clearly on the rise, as is the opportunity for increased supply of primary and processed food products from the region.

If we want access to local food, farmers need to be profitable. For a long time, pork producers in particular were suffering. The Canadian government even had a program to help them get out of pig farming. But that’s turning around, thanks in part to research and genetics.

Jim Long, president of purebred pork breeding giant Genesus Inc., says the best farmers are cutting their costs and increasing their profitability by investing in pigs that produce bigger litters. Incredibly, he says, he’s seen customers jump four pigs per sow per year by changing genetics. To the public, this will look like business as usual. To farmers, the difference is huge.

In 2012, farmers will continue working through conflicts with weather, prices, politics and everything else that makes food production challenging and fascinating. Let’s wish them a Happy New Year. A lot is riding on their success.

This column appeared in the Guelph Mercury January 2, 2012. The photo here is from planetgreen.discovery.com.

A half-century ago, I guess it was a sign of the times. For example, my uncle, who called his farm Ambitious Acres, had the barn painters stencil in “Don Cadotte and son,” the son being my cousin Greg.

It's hard to read the name on the side of this barn, near Stouffville.

Indeed, Greg was his only son. But Uncle Don and his tireless wife Marie also had five very capable daughters, namely my other cousins Donna, Angela, Connie, Cathy and Michelle.

When it came to the barn, what about them?

Well, it turns out someone else from Wallaceburg, one of my oldest friends, Prof. Lonnie Aarssen, has come up with at least a partial answer. Aarssen, a biologist at Queen’s University, says my uncle and others like him were given to show off what Austin Powers would call his Mini Me – that is, a biological copy of himself.

“We’re aware of our mortality,” says Aarssen, “and having copies of ourselves is a mortality buffer.”

Aarssen and his research team asked almost 2,400 Queen’s students what gender of baby they would prefer first. Traditionally, in southwestern Ontario culture, boys were mentioned first. In the farm sense, they were not only heirs, but also as built-in farm labourers and schoolyard watchdogs for little sisters to come.

Aarssen anticipated traditional boy-first patterns. And he did, to an extent – 65 per cent of boys in the study said they want a boy first.

But the surprise came when more half of the women respondents said they wanted a girl, not a boy — a female version of Mini Me.

I’d love to see this survey applied specifically to modern farms. It’s still important that labourers be hale and hearty, but as mechanization continues to advance, a strong back isn’t all that counts anymore. That’s especially true when it comes to farm management, such as choosing crop protection, borrowing money and hiring labour, which is becoming increasingly fine tuned. It’s not a male domain.

Women say they need mentors to assume leadership positions in agriculture. I write about this in my Urban Cowboy column this week in the Guelph Mercury.

Price wars are being predicted for food in 2012, thanks mainly to imminent arrival of the latest big box store to hit Canada. But in a strange twist, that could actually end up working in local food producers’ favour.

According to the new 2012 Food Price Index report from economics professors Sylvain Charlebois and Francis Tapon at the University of Guelph, next year’s overall price increase in food should be about two per cent. Input costs such as fuel, fertilizer and crop protection products have levelled out for farmers, putting less pressure on grocery prices which have risen as much as 11 per cent for some commodities this year.

However, the two per cent forecast depends significantly on a couple of things, starting with the weather.

Mother Nature has the final say in weather forecasts.

Unpredictable heat, cold and rainfall continue to influence farming in ways never experienced in modern-era agriculture. Charlebois doesn’t know if, or whether, we’re experiencing short-term or long-term climate change. He just knows that when he looks into the future of food prices these days, he gives a nod to Mother Nature.

“It’s the first thing we mention in our report,” he says. “If the weather cooperates, our predictions will be fine. But how can we know what Mother Nature will do?”

Generally, bad weather means less production and higher consumer prices.

But equally as unpredictable is the global economic situation. Europe is a chronic mess. The U.S. recovery is sluggish and faltering. Even China is experiencing a slowdown as consumers everywhere tighten their belts.

Still, though — and this has always been agriculture’s ace in the hole — people have to eat. And they have to shop somewhere to buy food.

Lately, consumers had more interest in buying local food. Yet they also have a drive to buy food as cheaply as possible, a long-standing trait of Canadian food shoppers.

The latter is well-understood by retailers, and it’s sparked massive grocery competition in this country based mainly on price.

The economists predict turf battles will only intensify when the Target chain moves into Canada.

Target competes head to head with Walmart, which has said it wants to capture as much as four per cent more of the food retail market this year. That’s huge. The economists say that will turn the current price battles into an epic war.

For his part, Charlebois says price pressure on farmers will continue as the war catches fire. Grocers will need to take profits from somewhere, and if consumers won’t pay at the finished-product end, farmers and processors could take a hit.

Yet even though all this, there’s good news for fans of local food and farmers alike.

Target has supply arrangements with Sobey’s, which Charlebois describes as being among the most receptive of the grocery chains to local preferences.

So even though a price war is likely, more opportunities could exist to put local food in front of grocery store shoppers year round. Imagine…a price war based on local food. It’s a long shot, because local food is not likely the kind retailers would discount.

But given the ultra-competitive nature of the market, who knows?

Local food opportunities will depend not just on availability, but also on price. Research influences both factors.

Through agriculture and food research programs such as those at the University of Guelph, sponsored by the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, faculty members come up with new technologies, techniques and varieties to help farmers be as efficient as possible.

Because if costs are going up, so must profit. And in an era of small margins and major price wars, research is needed to help profitability grow.

Last Wednesday, Ottawa was nabbed for trying to get rid of the Canadian Wheat Board too fast for the law. It doesn’t like the board for allegedly restricting farmers’ marketing freedom (according to the Canadian Wheat Board Act, farmers must sell their export wheat and barley through the board) and it wants it essentially gone by August. It’s put forward new legislation, Bill C-18, called the Marketing Freedom for Grain Farmers Act, to take away the wheat board’s monopoly.

That’s fine. A democratically elected government can change things if it wants to, and if it follows whatever rules are in place for making change.

But it hasn’t, says Federal Court judge Douglas Campbell. Section 47.1 of the current Canadian Wheat Board Act says altering the marketing arrangement for export grain and barley is only possible through a vote of farmers. Ottawa tried to sidestep that law, which was written to prevent exactly what it’s trying to do.

Fast-moving Ottawa said immediately it will exercise its right to appeal — just like any speeder, who figures an injustice has been served.

But most speeders are contrite, even during their appeal.

Not Ottawa. It’s vowing to speed again, and last Wednesday’s ruling did nothing to deter it. “Let me be clear,” said Agriculture and Agri-food Minister Gerry Ritz, “we will never reconsider western wheat and barley farmers’ fundamental right to market their own wheat and barley.”

I’ve always thought it would be wonderful to be a Canadian senator. But this week, I’m not so sure. The Senate has to approve legislation, and Ottawa wants the marketing freedom law pushed through. But even though Senate is heavily peppered with Tories, how can it approve this legislation with a clear conscience? A judge has said the government broke the law by not seeking farmers’ consent. Hello?

Ottawa, do the right thing and put on the brakes. Settle the matter with a vote of farmers, like the law says. If farmers agree with your position, you can have confidence moving forward. If they don’t, you, and they, can figure out some compromise.

Compromise. That’s the Canadian way. The current approach is not.

I write about the wheat board situation in my Urban Cowboy column in the Guelph Mercury.  The photo is from www.topspeed.com.

Many Americans, and Canadians, had no idea horse slaughter occurred in the first place.

But, in fact, it takes place often, and right under our noses, despite the cultural shock associated with eating horsemeat.

Most North Americans don’t have an appetite for it. With some exceptions, horses are seldom viewed as food animals. For the most part, the public sees them as athletes, beasts of burden, or companion animals.

But North America doesn’t have a monopoly on global food menus. Elsewhere – Europe and Asia, for example – horsemeat consumption is not unusual. At one time, about 140,000 horses were slaughtered in the U.S. each year. Then, in 2006, horse slaughter stopped. The American government was under pressure by activists to ban it.

But instead of being slaughtered in the U.S., they’ve been shipped to horse slaughter-friendly Mexico and Canada. From 2006 through 2010, U.S. horse exports for slaughter increased by nearly 150 per cent to Canada and more than 650 per cent to Mexico.

Finally, earlier last month, the U.S. government very quietly reinstated federal inspection at horse slaughter facilities, after accepting a report from its own accountability office that suggested the alternative to slaughter — that is, abandonment and neglect — was worse.

I talk about this issue in my Urban Cowboy column in the Guelph Mercury.

Clare is a former SPARK writer. She and other ex-SPARKers and agricultural communications students (@Stefanie_N, @coffeeshoeswine, among others) who are now association members may remember these tips from the old and not-so-old days:

Cats, such as Smudge, would likely eat fish, if given the chance.

1. Instead of starting a sentence with “There is…” start it with the subject or object. For example, let There is a new soybean disease lurking in Kent County become A new soybean disease is lurking in Kent County.

2. The first five words of your lead are the ones that really count. So, rather than The Eastern Canada Farm Writers’ Association is pleased to announce Clare Illingworth is this year’s president, instead try Clare Illingworth has been elected president of the Eastern Canada Farm Writers’ Association.

3. Eliminate “of” as much as possible — it’s often unnecessary. For example, pieces of cow bone effortlessly become cow bone pieces, simply by removing the of.

4. Strive for acronym-free copy. In second reference, the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs can simply be the ministry, rather than OMAFRA.

5. Write in the active voice. Cats eat fish is so much more crisp than Fish is eaten by cats (i.e. the passive voice).

See you at the session!

The colourful and well-spoken Wales, an Elgin County horticulture producer, beat rival Don McCabe, of Lambton County, by just one vote (129-128) on the second ballot in the race for top spot of Ontario’s largest general farm organization last Monday. Both candidates were federation vice-presidents.

Wales has particular experience in on-farm labour issues, environmental issues, and in working on high-profile program development with the province, including Ontario’s risk management program and the agricultural portion of the province’s all-sector “Open For Business” legislation review.

Wales is assuming the presidency at a fascinating, tumultuous time for agriculture, one in which it needs to be understood more than ever by the public.

Farming is making the front pages and lead stories with increasing frequency. For decades, people east of Manitoba seldom heard about the Canadian Wheat Board. And they knew little of the supply management situation for dairy, poultry and eggs, even though they were heavily influenced by it. Now, these stories are everywhere.

I write about the challenges facing Wales and other farm leaders in my Urban Cowboy column in the Guelph Mercury.

It kind of reminded me of when University of Guelph-developed Yukon Gold potatoes were served at then-U.S. President Bill Clinton’s inauguration dinner. Except this time, the “product” doesn’t get processed.

Below is the celebratory pardon at the White House, along with a memo from the company (which also inserted the links).

Here’s the video:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/1292069130001/president-pardons-turkey-for-thanksgiving

And Happy Thanksgiving to my American relatives and friends.

  * * *

Hybrid Turkey Pardoned by Obama

Hybrid Turkeys is pleased to be able to say that the Thanksgiving turkey named “Liberty”, officially pardoned by US President Barack Obama on November 23, 2011, was one of our very own.

Hatched on July 7, it was raised to about 5 weeks of age in a flock of commercial turkeys bred with Hybrid Turkeys genetics.  A group of about 35 turkeys was then removed from the main flock in Willmar, MN.  These birds were specially trained by children from the FFA – a youth organizing which promotes agriculture – under the supervision of National Turkey Federation Chairman (and owner of Willmar Poultry Company, Hybrid Turkeys biggest US customer) Richard Huisinga, who was present at the ceremony on November 23.

The “group training” ensured that the chosen turkey would be able to handle the types of surprises that a moment in the spotlight could expose them to: loud noises, flash lights, extensive handling, music, crowds of people etc. “Liberty” and “Peace”, the finalists from the group of 35, were chosen for their attractive feathering, muscling, red and blue head coloring and a healthy fanning of feathers when they strut.

Hybrid Turkeys’ Peter Gruhl drove the two birds from Willmar, MN to Washington D.C., for the big day. He was also present during the ceremony and placed Liberty on the table prior to the President’s pardoning.

Names were selected from over 100 submissions to the Minnesota Turkey Growers Association’s website, including many from students who were learning about the importance of agriculture to the world food supply and local economies.

“Some of you may know that recently I’ve been taking a series of executive actions that don’t require congressional approval,” Obama said. “Well, here’s another one. We can’t wait to pardon these turkeys — literally. Otherwise, they’d end up next to the mashed potatoes and stuffing.”

Local food is local food, period. Its distinguishing characteristic is that it’s grown close to where it’s consumed, chalking up as few food miles as possible. Varying definitions exist about how close is close. But in the end, if consumers buy it (and pay what it’s worth), local farmers, however they’re defined, benefit.

Now, consider what local food is not.

Nothing makes local food automatically organic, natural, better, worse, cheaper or more expensive than non-local food. But sometimes perceptions trump reality, and a new study shows that seems to be the case when it comes to certain local food traits.

Ben Campbell, a horticulture economics researcher at the Vineland Research and Innovation Centre, says the Canada-wide online survey of almost 900 people his team conducted last fall shows most respondents grasp the basic idea that local food means decreased transportation.

Logically, people understand anything that needs to be shipped an appreciable distance is likely to challenge the environment more than the same commodity produced locally, however it’s defined.

But Campbell and his team found clarity was lacking among respondents on some other local food and organic food aspects.

The team’s findings prompted my Urban Cowboy column in today’s Guelph Mercury.

The photo is from Simtropolis.com.